Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (43%) · Thunder at 90¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers10¢Thunder90¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$4.65

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 90¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers10%

Thunder90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,744

Combined PnL+$194.15

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$158.5

Total Shares2,085

Combined PnL-$198.8

Thunder — 43%Trail Blazers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 79.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$214.4	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 87.3¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$87.42	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 87.3¢	$802.06	$826.64	+$24.58
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 12.6¢	$512.15	$406.55	-$112
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 89.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$14.54	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
RN1	Thunderavg 91.1¢	$511.77	$506.06	-$5.71	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 11.7¢	$82	$70	-$12	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 22¢	$220	$50	-$170	53% 234-204 (438)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 13¢	$52	$31	-$13.8	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 14¢	$10.5	$7.5	-$3	48% 512-544 (1056)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$1,719.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$214.4

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,364.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$87.42

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Thunder$802.0687.3¢+$24.58

Trail Blazers$512.1512.6¢-$112

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$1,101.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.54

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$511.77

Value

$506.06

PnL

-$5.71

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$82

Value

$70

PnL

-$12

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$220

Value

$50

PnL

-$170

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$52

Value

$31

PnL

-$13.8

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.