Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (73%) · Trail Blazers at 53¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder48¢Trail Blazers52¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$453.32

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 52.5¢

-7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder48%

Trail Blazers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers11 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares10,158

Combined PnL-$520.23

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,921

Combined PnL+$66.91

Trail Blazers — 73%Thunder — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$348.24	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
XY xyz.ewwCTR	Thunderavg 43.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.74	—
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 55.7¢	$1.0K	$954.6	-$67.37	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$510.54	$516.81	+$6.27	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$285	$267.5	-$17.5
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 42.1¢	$225.54	$249.31	+$23.77
SI Siddhartha1	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$549.66	$515.9	-$33.75	61% 92-60 (152)
RN1ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 60.4¢	$589.3	$436.37	-$47.38	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.9¢	$213.82	$218.88	+$5.06
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 60.4¢	$252.79	$217.49	-$52.44
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 57.3¢	$355.39	$332.51	-$22.88	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$329.43	$303.87	-$25.56	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 57.9¢	$300.21	$277.43	-$22.78	55% 541-436 (977)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 56.4¢	$220.18	$208.76	-$11.43	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56.8¢	$217.98	$188.85	-$15.41	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 56.8¢	$152.61	$143.75	-$11.05
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 51¢	$49.47	$45.11	-$4.36
GC GC-PCTR	Thunderavg 42¢	$156.97	$173.79	+$16.82	17% 75-358 (433)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Thunderavg 43.7¢	$120.82	$141.13	+$20.31	48% 231-247 (478)
VE Venusian	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$109.76	$127.68	+$17.92	28% 317-800 (1117)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 32¢	$76.19	$110.71	+$34.52	53% 228-199 (427)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56.7¢	$70.56	$40.1	-$5.96	49% 498-518 (1016)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	27% 201-533 (734)
TA takeormake<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.68	-$0.27	58% 3133-2226 (5359)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,785.94

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$348.24

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

xyz.ewwCTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,308.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.74

Record

—

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,021.97

Value

$954.6

PnL

-$67.37

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

NM-PARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$510.54

Value

$516.81

PnL

+$6.27

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$28557¢-$17.5

Thunder$225.5442.1¢+$23.77

Siddhartha1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$549.66

Value

$515.9

PnL

-$33.75

Record

61%

92-60 (152)

RN1ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$589.3

Value

$436.37

PnL

-$47.38

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Thunder$213.8246.9¢+$5.06

Trail Blazers$252.7960.4¢-$52.44

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$355.39

Value

$332.51

PnL

-$22.88

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Trail Blazers

Invested

$329.43

Value

$303.87

PnL

-$25.56

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$300.21

Value

$277.43

PnL

-$22.78

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$220.18

Value

$208.76

PnL

-$11.43

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$217.98

Value

$188.85

PnL

-$15.41

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$152.6156.8¢-$11.05

Thunder$49.4751¢-$4.36

GC-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$156.97

Value

$173.79

PnL

+$16.82

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

SnakeBallCTR

Thunder

Invested

$120.82

Value

$141.13

PnL

+$20.31

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

Venusian

Trail Blazers

Invested

$109.76

Value

$127.68

PnL

+$17.92

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$76.19

Value

$110.71

PnL

+$34.52

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$70.56

Value

$40.1

PnL

-$5.96

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

takeormake<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.27

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.