Spread: Thunder (-19.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (57%) · Trail Blazers at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 57%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$17.37

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 99.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,474

Combined PnL+$30.75

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$7.83

Total Shares1,566

Combined PnL-$48.12

Trail Blazers — 57%Thunder — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 96.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0.3	56% 563-451 (1014)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$450.53	$475.28	+$24.75	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 95.5¢	$211.06	$212.11	+$1.05	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 94.4¢	$136.85	$89.03	+$5.26	48% 512-544 (1056)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thunderavg 3.2¢	$39.07	$6.06	-$33.01	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 5.1¢	$12.88	$1.27	-$11.61	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 4¢	$4	$0.5	-$3.5	62% 2398-1492 (3890)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,615.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$450.53

Value

$475.28

PnL

+$24.75

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$211.06

Value

$212.11

PnL

+$1.05

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$136.85

Value

$89.03

PnL

+$5.26

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.07

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$33.01

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$12.88

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$11.61

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.