Spread: Thunder (-17.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (56%) · Trail Blazers at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder2¢Trail Blazers98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 56%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$29.48

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 97.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder2%

Trail Blazers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,617

Combined PnL-$9.53

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$95

Total Shares2,285

Combined PnL-$19.96

Trail Blazers — 56%Thunder — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 97¢	$1.0K	$987	-$31.5	56% 563-451 (1014)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 94¢	$258.24	$254.72	+$11.68	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
SU suitcase6628	Trail Blazersavg 94¢	$197.4	$204.86	+$7.46	63% 193-112 (305)
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 92.1¢	$118.77	$85.54	+$2.84	48% 512-544 (1056)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 6¢	$47.22	$47.22	+$0	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Thunderavg 3.3¢	$39.47	$28.97	-$10.5	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Thunderavg 9¢	$18.3	$12.2	-$6.11	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 9¢	$9.96	$6.61	-$3.35	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Trail Blazersavg 93.9¢	$4.7	$4.7	+$0	62% 2398-1492 (3890)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,018.5

Value

$987

PnL

-$31.5

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$258.24

Value

$254.72

PnL

+$11.68

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

suitcase6628

Trail Blazers

Invested

$197.4

Value

$204.86

PnL

+$7.46

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$118.77

Value

$85.54

PnL

+$2.84

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$47.22

Value

$47.22

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$39.47

Value

$28.97

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$18.3

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$6.11

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$9.96

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$3.35

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (7 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.