Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 79¢ · $947 held · ended Nov 14

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$946.54

Combined PnL

$197.78

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 79¢

+66% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$779.63

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL+$233.62

Over3 traders

Total Value$166.91

Total Shares410

Combined PnL-$35.84

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.4¢	$534.18	$764.89	+$230.7	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49¢	$194.34	$158.64	-$35.69	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 51¢	$10.83	$13.78	+$2.95	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$7.72	$7.59	-$0.13	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
MI micky456<$100	Underavg 62¢	$1	$0.97	-$0.03	47% 489-544 (1033)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$0.69	$0.68	-$0.02	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$534.18

Value

$764.89

PnL

+$230.7

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$194.34

Value

$158.64

PnL

-$35.69

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$10.83

Value

$13.78

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

micky456<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

489-544 (1033)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.