Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 51¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 51¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares15,954

Combined PnL+$229.5

Over4 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares16,345

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.6¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$187.78	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 45¢	$5.1K	$7.3K	+$2.2K	5% 10-202 (212)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$139.59	34% 44-84 (128)
Stickman22	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$40	57% 12-9 (21)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.9¢	$205.81	$197.41	-$8.4	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$158.4	$134.2	-$24.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$47.41	$63.21	+$15.8
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$124.2	$118.8	-$5.4	55% 441-368 (809)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 38¢	$12.9	$14.43	+$1.53	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	40% 614-914 (1528)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.05	$4.14	+$0.09	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.2	-$0.2	43% 920-1244 (2164)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,717.48

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$187.78

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$5,137.52

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

10-202 (212)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$2,186.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$139.59

Record

34%

44-84 (128)

Stickman22

Under

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$40

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$205.81

Value

$197.41

PnL

-$8.4

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Over$158.451.9¢-$24.2

Under$47.4142¢+$15.8

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$124.2

Value

$118.8

PnL

-$5.4

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$12.9

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$1.53

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.