Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 213.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 52¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$66.89

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,319

Combined PnL+$267.58

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,749

Combined PnL-$334.47

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$155.76	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 48.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.93	51% 487-460 (947)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 55¢	$988.35	$1.0K	+$44.92	45% 430-535 (965)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 53¢	$1.0K	$877.28	-$155.96	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$819.74	-$63.3	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 58.5¢	$479.89	$381.2	-$98.69	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 38¢	$165	$208.42	+$43.42	45% 123-151 (274)
MI micky456	Underavg 55¢	$109.31	$114.28	+$4.97	48% 505-558 (1063)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 39.8¢	$67.85	$76.63	+$8.77	45% 2387-2862 (5249)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 77¢	$77	$52	-$25	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 21¢	$13.29	$35.76	+$22.47	37% 872-1456 (2328)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 45¢	$5.13	$6.1	+$0.97	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.41	-$0.3	33% 146-291 (437)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,224.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$155.76

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,088.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$4.93

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$988.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$44.92

Record

45%

430-535 (965)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,033.24

Value

$877.28

PnL

-$155.96

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,185.82

Value

$819.74

PnL

-$63.3

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$479.89

Value

$381.2

PnL

-$98.69

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$165

Value

$208.42

PnL

+$43.42

Record

45%

123-151 (274)

micky456

Under

Invested

$109.31

Value

$114.28

PnL

+$4.97

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.85

Value

$76.63

PnL

+$8.77

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77

Value

$52

PnL

-$25

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$13.29

Value

$35.76

PnL

+$22.47

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.13

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$0.97

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.3

Record

33%

146-291 (437)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.