Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Clippers: O/U 209.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 35¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 14

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 35¢

-27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares14,824

Combined PnL+$352.82

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares12,702

Combined PnL+$769.61

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$6.8K	$7.1K	+$391.46	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
BI big8betz	Overavg 52¢	$5.5K	$6.2K	+$692.51	50% 75-75 (150)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$559.06	+$147.09	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
MI micky456	Overavg 67¢	$431.48	$386.4	-$45.08	48% 505-558 (1063)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47¢	$329.96	$298.2	-$31.76	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
TA takeormake	Overavg 67¢	$238.52	$213.6	-$24.92	57% 3443-2562 (6005)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$167.48	$151.52	-$15.95	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$125.44	$99.84	-$25.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$42.04	$51.68	+$9.65
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$40.8	$33.2	-$7.6	41% 151-215 (366)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$16.15	$16.74	+$0.59	43% 933-1261 (2194)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.86	$2.31	+$0.45	37% 872-1456 (2328)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.71	$1.39	-$0.32	45% 2387-2862 (5249)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$6,750.02

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$391.46

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

big8betz

Over

Invested

$5,500

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$692.51

Record

50%

75-75 (150)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,513.5

Value

$559.06

PnL

+$147.09

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

micky456

Over

Invested

$431.48

Value

$386.4

PnL

-$45.08

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$329.96

Value

$298.2

PnL

-$31.76

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$238.52

Value

$213.6

PnL

-$24.92

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$167.48

Value

$151.52

PnL

-$15.95

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

Both legs:

Under$125.4449¢-$25.6

Over$42.0449.6¢+$9.65

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.8

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$7.6

Record

41%

151-215 (366)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.15

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$0.59

Record

43%

933-1261 (2194)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.45

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.32

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.