Spread: Clippers (-1.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (43%) · Thunder at 57¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Clippers43¢Thunder57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 43%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$34.8

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 57¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers43%

Thunder57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,389

Combined PnL-$292.77

Clippers8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,434

Combined PnL+$327.57

Thunder — 43%Clippers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 60.7¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$193.56	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 37.9¢	$642.43	$736.48	+$94.05	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Clippersavg 41¢	$410	$435	+$25	11% 55-453 (508)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Clippersavg 30¢	$115.59	$215.76	+$100.18	41% 598-843 (1441)
RN1	Thunderavg 61.7¢	$290.66	$201.15	+$13.01	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 69.9¢	$256.62	$150.45	-$106.17	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Clippersavg 26¢	$64.97	$139.94	+$74.97	37% 937-1581 (2518)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 27¢	$13.5	$28	+$14.5	45% 230-283 (513)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Clippersavg 32¢	$11.67	$20.42	+$8.75	37% 872-1456 (2328)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 57.5¢	$33.79	$17.84	-$0.21	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
MI micky456<$100	Thunderavg 68¢	$19.36	$15.04	-$3.68	48% 505-558 (1063)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Clippersavg 29¢	$5.51	$10.64	+$5.13	51% 487-460 (947)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 68¢	$6.12	$3.96	-$2.16	57% 3443-2562 (6005)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,825.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$193.56

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$642.43

Value

$736.48

PnL

+$94.05

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Clippers

Invested

$410

Value

$435

PnL

+$25

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

BreakTheBankCTR

Clippers

Invested

$115.59

Value

$215.76

PnL

+$100.18

Record

41%

598-843 (1441)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$290.66

Value

$201.15

PnL

+$13.01

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$256.62

Value

$150.45

PnL

-$106.17

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

MadridTimeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$64.97

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$74.97

Record

37%

937-1581 (2518)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$13.5

Value

$28

PnL

+$14.5

Record

45%

230-283 (513)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$11.67

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$8.75

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$33.79

Value

$17.84

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

micky456<$100

Thunder

Invested

$19.36

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$3.68

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.51

Value

$10.64

PnL

+$5.13

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.12

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$2.16

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrClippers 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.