Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (44%) · Clippers at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder10¢Clippers90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 44%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$212.39

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 90.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder10%

Clippers91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,067

Combined PnL+$360.91

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$199.22

Total Shares3,984

Combined PnL-$573.3

Clippers — 44%Thunder — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Clippersavg 74.3¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$550.45	51% 487-460 (947)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 95¢	$1.6K	$349.99	-$200	55% 1390-1158 (2548)
CH ch27erCTR	Thunderavg 25¢	$400	$80	-$320	28% 20-52 (72)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Thunderavg 10.3¢	$129.9	$62.99	-$66.91	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
RN1CTR	Thunderavg 23.2¢	$232.44	$50.05	-$182.39	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Clippersavg 79¢	$19.75	$23.75	+$4	50% 3702-3662 (7364)
38 38791873984189<$100	Clippersavg 69¢	$89.72	$16.19	+$6.46	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 5¢	$4.93	$4.93	+$0	49% 1915-2022 (3937)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 21¢	$5.25	$1.25	-$4	57% 3443-2562 (6005)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Clippers

Invested

$1,974.07

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$550.45

Record

51%

487-460 (947)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$1,565.99

Value

$349.99

PnL

-$200

Record

55%

1390-1158 (2548)

ch27erCTR

Thunder

Invested

$400

Value

$80

PnL

-$320

Record

28%

20-52 (72)

FlaznorpCTR

Thunder

Invested

$129.9

Value

$62.99

PnL

-$66.91

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

RN1CTR

Thunder

Invested

$232.44

Value

$50.05

PnL

-$182.39

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

6512395314597884<$100

Clippers

Invested

$19.75

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

3702-3662 (7364)

38791873984189<$100

Clippers

Invested

$89.72

Value

$16.19

PnL

+$6.46

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1915-2022 (3937)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$5.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$4

Record

57%

3443-2562 (6005)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.