Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (64%) · Clippers at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Thunder1¢Clippers99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 64%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$82.35

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 99¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Clippers99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,476

Combined PnL+$495.95

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$85.48

Total Shares1,915

Combined PnL-$413.6

Clippers — 64%Thunder — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 77.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$85.61	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
65 6512395314597884	Clippersavg 86.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$222.4	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
RN1	Clippersavg 85¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$208.59	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Clippersavg 74¢	$278.93	$373.23	+$94.3	51% 493-465 (958)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 89.9¢	$790.3	$327.27	-$38.15	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
PA Pan9X	Clippersavg 94.8¢	$359.41	$295.13	+$5.13	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
AN Anon455	Clippersavg 86¢	$220.61	$137.58	-$83.03	50% 400-403 (803)
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 19¢	$120.12	$68.72	-$51.4	57% 3492-2606 (6098)
SE sentrio<$100	Clippersavg 94¢	$19.04	$20.06	+$1.01	43% 949-1283 (2232)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Thunderavg 21.5¢	$2.3K	$8.35	-$300.43	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
CI cigarettes<$100	Clippersavg 97.2¢	$4.65	$4.74	+$0.09	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
MI micky456CTR	Thunderavg 19¢	$125.78	$4.65	-$22.64	48% 550-607 (1157)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Thunderavg 8.9¢	$28.34	$3.2	-$25.14	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Thunderavg 26¢	$14.56	$0.56	-$14	37% 909-1532 (2441)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$1,934.12

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$85.61

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

6512395314597884

Clippers

Invested

$1,581.37

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$222.4

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$1,265.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$208.59

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Clippers

Invested

$278.93

Value

$373.23

PnL

+$94.3

Record

51%

493-465 (958)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$790.3

Value

$327.27

PnL

-$38.15

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Pan9X

Clippers

Invested

$359.41

Value

$295.13

PnL

+$5.13

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

Anon455

Clippers

Invested

$220.61

Value

$137.58

PnL

-$83.03

Record

50%

400-403 (803)

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$120.12

Value

$68.72

PnL

-$51.4

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

sentrio<$100

Clippers

Invested

$19.04

Value

$20.06

PnL

+$1.01

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Thunder

Invested

$2,349.85

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$300.43

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

cigarettes<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

micky456CTR

Thunder

Invested

$125.78

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$22.64

Record

48%

550-607 (1157)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$28.34

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$25.14

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$14.56

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$14

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.