Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$77.08

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 50.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,284

Combined PnL+$223.06

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,958

Combined PnL-$145.99

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 47¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$207.54	48% 131-144 (275)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$121.5	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
nehcnehc	Overavg 50¢	$988.03	$997.91	+$9.88	36% 63-110 (173)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50¢	$635	$628.65	-$6.35	48% 720-766 (1486)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 52¢	$195	$185.63	-$9.38	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 48¢	$178.25	$183.82	+$5.57	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 53¢	$146.81	$139.89	-$6.93	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$51.73	$50	-$1.74	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	56% 665-530 (1195)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.25	$3.32	+$0.07	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$2,787.02

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$207.54

Record

48%

131-144 (275)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,651.55

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$121.5

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$988.03

Value

$997.91

PnL

+$9.88

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$635

Value

$628.65

PnL

-$6.35

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$195

Value

$185.63

PnL

-$9.38

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$178.25

Value

$183.82

PnL

+$5.57

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$146.81

Value

$139.89

PnL

-$6.93

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.73

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.74

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.