Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 212.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 22¢ · $531 held · ended Nov 15

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$531.2

Combined PnL

$101.76

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 22¢

-62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$305.03

Total Shares383

Combined PnL+$105.1

Over4 traders

Total Value$226.17

Total Shares395

Combined PnL-$3.34

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42¢	$138.84	$240.25	+$101.41	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58¢	$216.61	$212.95	-$3.66	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 60¢	$49.25	$45.75	-$3.5	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.09	$11.24	+$5.15	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
RN1<$100	Underavg 54¢	$4.46	$6.35	+$1.9	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$6.04	$6.34	+$0.3	49% 136-144 (280)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.8	$3.92	+$0.12	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$3.07	$2.96	-$0.11	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 39¢	$0.64	$0.73	+$0.09	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.72	+$0.05	50% 4146-4137 (8283)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$138.84

Value

$240.25

PnL

+$101.41

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$216.61

Value

$212.95

PnL

-$3.66

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$49.25

Value

$45.75

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.09

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$5.15

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$4.46

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$1.9

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.34

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

136-144 (280)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.07

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.