Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (71%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Knicks (-4.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (61%) · Cavaliers at 30¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Knicks71¢Cavaliers29¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 29.5¢

-38% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks71%

Cavaliers30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks7 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares10,092

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Cavaliers11 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares27,549

Combined PnL$-5.1K

Knicks — 39%Cavaliers — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IA ianf2026	Knicksavg 52¢	$4.9K	$6.7K	+$1.8K	50% 122-123 (245)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Cavaliersavg 47.3¢	$4.2K	$2.7K	$-1.5K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	$-1.5K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 47.5¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$843.06	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$1.9K	$900.43	$-1.0K	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Knicksavg 70¢	$1.0K	$823.75	-$181.25	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 70¢	$525	$528.75	+$3.75
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$480	$295	-$185
nigiri99CTR	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$529.92	$529.92	+$0	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 51.6¢	$255.98	$249.83	+$21.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51.6¢	$140.98	$192.81	+$51.82
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 46¢	$88.91	$57.02	-$30.76
RN1	Knicksavg 50.7¢	$135.17	$188	+$52.83	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Knicksavg 50.2¢	$178.28	$182.12	+$3.84	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 50.2¢	$91.84	$128.99	+$37.16
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$86.45	$53.13	-$33.32
65 6512395314597884	Knicksavg 52¢	$110.5	$149.51	+$39	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$294	$135	-$159	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$91.42	$92.28	+$0.86	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$58.91	$82.01	+$23.1	48% 405-446 (851)
QI qinlaobanCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$87.04	$79.05	-$7.99	88% 448-64 (512)
TA takeormake<$100	Knicksavg 43¢	$24.05	$36.73	+$12.68	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 51.7¢	$82.96	$30.87	-$1.05	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Knicksavg 45¢	$8.18	$12.82	+$4.64	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$9.6	$4.5	-$5.1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
CH chongchong37CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$9.61	$4.41	-$5.2	52% 148-139 (287)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.4	-$0.15	52% 9018-8169 (17187)

ianf2026

Knicks

Invested

$4,885.9

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

50%

122-123 (245)

FlaznorpCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,210.07

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,812.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$2,225.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$843.06

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,925.21

Value

$900.43

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$1,005

Value

$823.75

PnL

-$181.25

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Knicks$52570¢+$3.75

Cavaliers$48048¢-$185

nigiri99CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$529.92

Value

$529.92

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$255.98

Value

$249.83

PnL

+$21.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Knicks$140.9851.6¢+$51.82

Cavaliers$88.9146¢-$30.76

RN1

Knicks

Invested

$135.17

Value

$188

PnL

+$52.83

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

NM-PARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$178.28

Value

$182.12

PnL

+$3.84

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Knicks$91.8450.2¢+$37.16

Cavaliers$86.4548¢-$33.32

6512395314597884

Knicks

Invested

$110.5

Value

$149.51

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$294

Value

$135

PnL

-$159

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$91.42

Value

$92.28

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Knicks

Invested

$58.91

Value

$82.01

PnL

+$23.1

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

qinlaobanCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$87.04

Value

$79.05

PnL

-$7.99

Record

88%

448-64 (512)

takeormake<$100

Knicks

Invested

$24.05

Value

$36.73

PnL

+$12.68

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$82.96

Value

$30.87

PnL

-$1.05

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Knicks

Invested

$8.18

Value

$12.82

PnL

+$4.64

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$9.6

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$5.1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

chongchong37CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$9.61

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$5.2

Record

52%

148-139 (287)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.