Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 55¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 10

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$43.7

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares15,604

Combined PnL-$38.13

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares15,197

Combined PnL-$5.57

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.9¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	-$48.16	30% 29-67 (96)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 45¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$63.94	30% 105-246 (351)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.8K	$816.21	-$62.79	3% 4-156 (160)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 55¢	$715.21	$708.71	-$6.5	0% 0-42 (42)
nigiri99	Underavg 53.1¢	$594.19	$610.4	+$16.21	43% 28-37 (65)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 45¢	$103.95	$105.1	+$1.15	52% 242-224 (466)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$90	$91	+$1	10% 11-104 (115)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 53.8¢	$182.63	$53.42	-$9.73	49% 60-63 (123)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$24.37	$24.37	+$0	53% 86-75 (161)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$17.64	$18.25	+$0.6	54% 233-201 (434)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$13.4	$13.65	+$0.25	69% 29-13 (42)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5	$2.73	+$0.33	26% 87-252 (339)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,325.79

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$48.16

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,753.07

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$63.94

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$1,793.87

Value

$816.21

PnL

-$62.79

Record

4-156 (160)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$715.21

Value

$708.71

PnL

-$6.5

Record

0-42 (42)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$594.19

Value

$610.4

PnL

+$16.21

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$103.95

Value

$105.1

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$90

Value

$91

PnL

+$1

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$182.63

Value

$53.42

PnL

-$9.73

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.37

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.64

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$0.25

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.33

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.