Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (81%). 12 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pelicans vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 20¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 10

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$559.73

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 19.5¢

-62% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares11,810

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under12 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares18,530

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46¢	$4.7K	$5.9K	+$1.2K	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 54¢	$5.4K	$4.5K	-$900	7% 7-93 (100)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$154.95	51% 2435-2323 (4758)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47.3¢	$943.53	$1.3K	+$402.5	56% 403-323 (726)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.33	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$411.48	$425.92	+$14.44	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.5¢	$304.92	$331.99	+$27.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$106.56	$93.93	-$12.63
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 51¢	$408	$360	-$48	26% 52-151 (203)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 42.8¢	$295.91	$311.1	+$15.19	48% 91-98 (189)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$251.27	$255.94	+$4.67	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$154.24	$154.59	+$0.35	47% 171-192 (363)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 48¢	$203.67	$128.72	-$7.74	54% 179-150 (329)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 47¢	$64.86	$80.04	+$15.18	29% 115-287 (402)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$67.21	$63.01	-$4.2	23% 174-599 (773)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 55¢	$58.24	$61.42	+$3.18	58% 3041-2166 (5207)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$28.1	$30.84	+$2.74	52% 92-86 (178)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$34.38	$21.06	+$0.08	51% 197-186 (383)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$14.06	$17.1	+$3.04	46% 124-145 (269)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$9.55	$12.65	+$3.11	20% 67-271 (338)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.85	$7.75	+$0.9	23% 176-586 (762)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,670.64

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,400

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$900

Record

7-93 (100)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$1,549.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$154.95

Record

51%

2435-2323 (4758)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$943.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$402.5

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,125.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.33

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$411.48

Value

$425.92

PnL

+$14.44

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Both legs:

Over$304.9250.5¢+$27.07

Under$106.5651¢-$12.63

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$408

Value

$360

PnL

-$48

Record

26%

52-151 (203)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$295.91

Value

$311.1

PnL

+$15.19

Record

48%

91-98 (189)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$251.27

Value

$255.94

PnL

+$4.67

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$154.24

Value

$154.59

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$203.67

Value

$128.72

PnL

-$7.74

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$64.86

Value

$80.04

PnL

+$15.18

Record

29%

115-287 (402)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.21

Value

$63.01

PnL

-$4.2

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$58.24

Value

$61.42

PnL

+$3.18

Record

58%

3041-2166 (5207)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.1

Value

$30.84

PnL

+$2.74

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$34.38

Value

$21.06

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.06

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$3.04

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.55

Value

$12.65

PnL

+$3.11

Record

20%

67-271 (338)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$6.85

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$0.9

Record

23%

176-586 (762)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.