Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pelicans, while the market favors Warriors (54%). 12 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Warriors (-10.5)

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (57%) · Pelicans at 47¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 10

Warriors54¢Pelicans46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 46.5¢

-11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

12 of 21 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors54%

Pelicans47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans12 traders

Total Value$27.5K

Total Shares52,899

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Warriors9 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares51,347

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Pelicans — 57%Warriors — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 57% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 52.1¢	$19.3K	$17.7K	$-1.7K	30% 29-67 (96)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Warriorsavg 51¢	$13.6K	$14.2K	+$665.54	6% 25-409 (434)
nigiri99	Warriorsavg 51¢	$12.8K	$13.1K	+$442.4	43% 28-37 (65)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Pelicansavg 52.4¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$498.72	3% 4-156 (160)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$237.03	3% 9-249 (258)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Pelicansavg 50¢	$1.0K	$930	-$70	1% 2-261 (263)
NM NM-PCTR	Pelicansavg 51.8¢	$1.0K	$927.9	-$94.03	6% 11-164 (175)
GC GC-PCTR	Pelicansavg 51.8¢	$983.75	$883.5	-$100.25	5% 11-190 (201)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pelicansavg 49.3¢	$576.12	$601.43	-$12.83	52% 242-224 (466)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 49.3¢	$328.46	$309.89	-$18.57
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 45.4¢	$247.66	$291.54	+$5.74
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 51.5¢	$748.59	$474.57	-$54.02	49% 60-63 (123)
RN1CTR	Pelicansavg 50¢	$507.52	$472.42	-$35.1	54% 233-201 (434)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pelicansavg 51.8¢	$448	$307.2	-$15.8	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 51.8¢	$193.39	$173.45	-$24.55
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50¢	$125	$133.75	+$8.75
OD Oddstorm	Warriorsavg 51¢	$252.45	$264.83	+$12.38	0% 0-48 (48)
LI LightParadox	Warriorsavg 49.9¢	$175.29	$188.04	+$12.75	26% 87-252 (339)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Warriorsavg 50¢	$128.75	$137.76	+$9.01	2% 4-203 (207)
LI Limousin<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$90.1	$98.37	+$8.27	24% 90-282 (372)
MA MadridTime<$100	Warriorsavg 50¢	$78.78	$84.29	+$5.51	25% 86-262 (348)
SE sentrio<$100	Warriorsavg 45.8¢	$52.97	$60.22	-$2.18	23% 49-165 (214)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 49.9¢	$59.27	$55.2	-$4.07	45% 38-46 (84)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 51.5¢	$70.04	$51.04	-$3.65	48% 173-188 (361)
VE Venusian<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$35.34	$38.59	+$3.25	23% 82-268 (350)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 52.4¢	$36.7	$32.55	-$4.15	69% 29-13 (42)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 51¢	$29.58	$26.97	-$2.61	6% 2-34 (36)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$19,337.2

Value

$17.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Warriors

Invested

$13,576.48

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$665.54

Record

25-409 (434)

nigiri99

Warriors

Invested

$12,752.83

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$442.4

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$4,429.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$498.72

Record

4-156 (160)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,241

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$237.03

Record

9-249 (258)

pltrkr111CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,000

Value

$930

PnL

-$70

Record

2-261 (263)

NM-PCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,021.93

Value

$927.9

PnL

-$94.03

Record

11-164 (175)

GC-PCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$983.75

Value

$883.5

PnL

-$100.25

Record

11-190 (201)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$576.12

Value

$601.43

PnL

-$12.83

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Both legs:

Pelicans$328.4649.3¢-$18.57

Warriors$247.6645.4¢+$5.74

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$748.59

Value

$474.57

PnL

-$54.02

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

RN1CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$507.52

Value

$472.42

PnL

-$35.1

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$448

Value

$307.2

PnL

-$15.8

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Pelicans$193.3951.8¢-$24.55

Warriors$12550¢+$8.75

Oddstorm

Warriors

Invested

$252.45

Value

$264.83

PnL

+$12.38

Record

0-48 (48)

LightParadox

Warriors

Invested

$175.29

Value

$188.04

PnL

+$12.75

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Warriors

Invested

$128.75

Value

$137.76

PnL

+$9.01

Record

4-203 (207)

Limousin<$100

Warriors

Invested

$90.1

Value

$98.37

PnL

+$8.27

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

MadridTime<$100

Warriors

Invested

$78.78

Value

$84.29

PnL

+$5.51

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

sentrio<$100

Warriors

Invested

$52.97

Value

$60.22

PnL

-$2.18

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$59.27

Value

$55.2

PnL

-$4.07

Record

45%

38-46 (84)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$70.04

Value

$51.04

PnL

-$3.65

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Venusian<$100

Warriors

Invested

$35.34

Value

$38.59

PnL

+$3.25

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$36.7

Value

$32.55

PnL

-$4.15

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

biying99999CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$29.58

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$2.61

Record

2-34 (36)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

12 of 21 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Pelicans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pelicans 57% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.