Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 53¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 11

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

Total Value

$33.8K

Combined PnL

$52.44

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares34,834

Combined PnL+$120.44

Under10 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares31,680

Combined PnL-$67.99

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 52.2¢	$18.1K	$18.2K	+$119.71	49% 95-99 (194)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$93.35	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$26.41	47% 500-558 (1058)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 47¢	$977.03	$987.42	+$10.39	70% 1655-702 (2357)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$725.5	$717.94	-$7.56	8% 37-420 (457)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$347.9	$269.97	-$2.97	49% 231-238 (469)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$217.37	$217.24	-$0.13	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 52¢	$76.25	$76.98	+$0.73	47% 148-167 (315)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$23.64	$23.15	-$0.49	50% 274-269 (543)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$20.63	$20.85	+$0.22	31% 169-382 (551)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$19.4	$19	-$0.4	55% 106-85 (191)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.38	-$0.13	24% 155-504 (659)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$18,090.95

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$119.71

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$10,840.39

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$93.35

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,483

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$26.41

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$977.03

Value

$987.42

PnL

+$10.39

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$725.5

Value

$717.94

PnL

-$7.56

Record

37-420 (457)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$347.9

Value

$269.97

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$217.37

Value

$217.24

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$76.25

Value

$76.98

PnL

+$0.73

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.64

Value

$23.15

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.63

Value

$20.85

PnL

+$0.22

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.13

Record

24%

155-504 (659)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.