Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 252.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 100¢ · $663 held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$662.71

Combined PnL

$18.15

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 99.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$652.04

Total Shares668

Combined PnL+$19.35

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.67

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$1.2

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 98¢	$399.13	$401.48	+$2.35	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
RN1	Underavg 86¢	$146.2	$163.2	+$17	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 96¢	$87.36	$87.36	+$0	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$5.99	$5.69	-$0.3	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$1.89	$3.6	+$1.71	49% 450-474 (924)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$3.64	$1.18	-$2.46	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.2	-$0.15	54% 401-336 (737)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$399.13

Value

$401.48

PnL

+$2.35

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

RN1

Under

Invested

$146.2

Value

$163.2

PnL

+$17

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$87.36

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.89

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$1.71

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$2.46

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.