Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 98¢ · $653 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$652.72
-$31.48
86.5¢ → 97.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 91.2¢ | $283.54 | $288.05 | +$4.52 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 91.2¢ | $229.74 | $204.12 | -$25.62 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 12.2¢ | $53.8 | $83.93 | +$30.14 | |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 80¢ | $172.35 | $174.59 | +$2.25 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
 RN1 | Underavg 94¢ | $166.24 | $148.01 | -$18.23 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $40.5 | -$4 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.3¢ | $7.39 | $0.86 | -$6.53 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $5.68 | $0.71 | -$4.97 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
Invested
$283.54
Value
$288.05
PnL
+$4.52
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.35
Value
$174.59
PnL
+$2.25
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
RN1Invested
$166.24
Value
$148.01
PnL
-$18.23
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$40.5
PnL
-$4
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$6.53
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$4.97
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.