Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 97¢ · $918 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$917.58
-$105.63
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 86.9¢ | $610.68 | $509.61 | -$101.07 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $315.77 | $357.71 | +$41.94 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 87¢ | $255.04 | $212.54 | -$42.51 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 11.5¢ | $60.73 | $145.18 | +$84.45 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $31.5 | $48.13 | +$16.63 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.38 | +$0.02 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $11.31 | $0.39 | -$10.92 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $10.66 | $0.37 | -$10.29 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
RN1Invested
$610.68
Value
$509.61
PnL
-$101.07
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$315.77
Value
$357.71
PnL
+$41.94
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.5
Value
$48.13
PnL
+$16.63
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$10.92
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
Invested
$10.66
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$10.29
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.