Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$51.08

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 99.5¢

+60% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,166

Combined PnL+$132.83

Over5 traders

Total Value$128.46

Total Shares524

Combined PnL-$81.76

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 57¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$11.01	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
RN1	Underavg 73.8¢	$783.69	$762.41	+$85.82	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$422.24	$398.08	-$24.16	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$233.13	$290.8	+$57.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.3¢	$189.11	$107.28	-$81.82
38 38791873984189	Underavg 67¢	$373.2	$321.37	+$18.35	48% 969-1052 (2021)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 86¢	$272.82	$206.28	-$66.54	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 58¢	$154.86	$154.86	-$0	11% 24-189 (213)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 53¢	$136.9	$130.4	+$75.87	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$89.66	$94.04	+$4.37	51% 330-319 (649)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 88¢	$46.64	$50.09	+$3.45	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 88¢	$44	$49.25	+$5.25	64% 180-100 (280)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 57.4¢	$46.87	$42.54	+$4.05	54% 401-336 (737)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$104.81	$16.72	-$88.09	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 71¢	$23.25	$13.38	-$4.52	49% 450-474 (924)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$12.94	$12.37	-$0.58	49% 220-229 (449)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$1.5	$4	+$2.5	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.83	$2.93	+$0.1	55% 120-99 (219)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$1.3	$1.33	+$0.03	16% 68-351 (419)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,223.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$11.01

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

RN1

Under

Invested

$783.69

Value

$762.41

PnL

+$85.82

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$422.24

Value

$398.08

PnL

-$24.16

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Under$233.1371¢+$57.66

Over$189.1120.3¢-$81.82

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$373.2

Value

$321.37

PnL

+$18.35

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$272.82

Value

$206.28

PnL

-$66.54

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$154.86

Value

$154.86

PnL

-$0

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$136.9

Value

$130.4

PnL

+$75.87

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.66

Value

$94.04

PnL

+$4.37

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$46.64

Value

$50.09

PnL

+$3.45

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$44

Value

$49.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$46.87

Value

$42.54

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$104.81

Value

$16.72

PnL

-$88.09

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$23.25

Value

$13.38

PnL

-$4.52

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.94

Value

$12.37

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.83

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.