Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 0.5¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.6K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares16,046

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares17,021

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 50¢	$6.7K	$12.0K	+$5.3K	26% 12-35 (47)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$6.5K	$4.5K	$-1.9K	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$32.31	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$114.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.2¢	$493.77	$346.85	-$146.92
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$91.87	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$642.8	$1.1K	+$410.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$641.21	$322.4	-$318.82
HI hi774c	Underavg 45¢	$930.89	$853.3	-$77.59	8% 37-423 (460)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 27.9¢	$290.58	$578.64	+$288.06	30% 134-317 (451)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 67.4¢	$229.32	$236.64	+$7.32	54% 217-188 (405)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$304.25	$160.18	+$8.35	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$77.61	$98.26	+$20.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.3¢	$75.37	$61.92	-$12.3
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48¢	$66.77	$109.2	+$42.43	28% 299-766 (1065)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 55¢	$164.75	$101.3	-$15.86	49% 450-474 (924)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$289.67	$95.21	-$194.46	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$54.54	$53.03	-$1.51	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 56.3¢	$36.13	$22.61	-$2.97	54% 401-336 (737)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$964.26	$10.12	-$954.14	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	35% 266-490 (756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$4.4	$2.8	-$1.6	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 42¢	$1.93	$1.89	-$0.03	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$32	$1	-$31	53% 5552-4939 (10491)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$6,732.78

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

26%

12-35 (47)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$6,477.07

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,506.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$32.31

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Under$1,013.1454.4¢+$114.61

Over$493.7756.2¢-$146.92

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,284.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$91.87

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Under$642.846.1¢+$410.68

Over$641.2148.7¢-$318.82

hi774c

Under

Invested

$930.89

Value

$853.3

PnL

-$77.59

Record

37-423 (460)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$290.58

Value

$578.64

PnL

+$288.06

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$229.32

Value

$236.64

PnL

+$7.32

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$304.25

Value

$160.18

PnL

+$8.35

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Over$77.6149¢+$20.65

Under$75.3746.3¢-$12.3

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$66.77

Value

$109.2

PnL

+$42.43

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$164.75

Value

$101.3

PnL

-$15.86

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$289.67

Value

$95.21

PnL

-$194.46

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.54

Value

$53.03

PnL

-$1.51

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$36.13

Value

$22.61

PnL

-$2.97

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$964.26

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$954.14

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$1.6

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32

Value

PnL

-$31

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.