Spread: Heat (-34.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (17%) · Jazz at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Jazz
6
Jazz 17%
$2.4K
-$49.68
Research grade
AvoidJazz at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Jazzavg 96.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$36.75 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Heatavg 3¢ | $30 | $29.5 | -$0.5 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Heatavg 5.9¢ | $31.56 | $18.01 | -$13.55 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Heatavg 3.5¢ | $14 | $13.4 | -$0.6 | 62% 2355-1453 (3808) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Heatavg 3¢ | $2.93 | $4.15 | +$1.22 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Heatavg 2.3¢ | $0.59 | $1.09 | +$0.5 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$2,418.81
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$36.75
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$30
Value
$29.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$31.56
Value
$18.01
PnL
-$13.55
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$14
Value
$13.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
62%
2355-1453 (3808)
Invested
$2.93
Value
$4.15
PnL
+$1.22
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$0.59
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.