Spread: Heat (-30.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat5¢Jazz95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$2.3

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 95¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat5%

Jazz95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,215

Combined PnL+$61.57

Heat4 traders

Total Value$109.1

Total Shares2,182

Combined PnL-$59.27

Jazz — 50%Heat — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (7 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 91.8¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$90.17	56% 502-393 (895)
38 38791873984189	Jazzavg 96.5¢	$781.73	$520.99	-$25.04	48% 959-1032 (1991)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 96¢	$79.2	$78.62	-$0.58	35% 266-489 (755)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 7.3¢	$108.47	$74.63	-$33.85	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
PA Pan9X	Jazzavg 97.1¢	$110.52	$58.86	-$2.97	49% 446-472 (918)
RN1CTR<$100	Heatavg 9.3¢	$37.9	$20.47	-$17.43	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 6.8¢	$13	$9.5	-$3.5	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Heatavg 10¢	$9	$4.5	-$4.5	51% 3172-3073 (6245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,348.35

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$90.17

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

38791873984189

Jazz

Invested

$781.73

Value

$520.99

PnL

-$25.04

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$79.2

Value

$78.62

PnL

-$0.58

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

FlaznorpCTR

Heat

Invested

$108.47

Value

$74.63

PnL

-$33.85

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Pan9X

Jazz

Invested

$110.52

Value

$58.86

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

RN1CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$37.9

Value

$20.47

PnL

-$17.43

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (7 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.