Spread: Heat (-28.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat7¢Jazz93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$275.37

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 93¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat7%

Jazz93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,632

Combined PnL-$234.9

Heat4 traders

Total Value$212.27

Total Shares2,880

Combined PnL-$40.47

Jazz — 50%Heat — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (6 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 90.9¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$244.76	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 89.1¢	$244.89	$246.55	+$1.65	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 8.8¢	$229.18	$195.2	-$33.98	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1	Jazzavg 89¢	$198.87	$184.7	+$7.5	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 94¢	$65.74	$66.44	+$0.7	35% 266-489 (755)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 11.6¢	$11.88	$7.14	-$4.74	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Heatavg 6¢	$6.96	$5.8	-$1.16	48% 959-1032 (1991)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 8¢	$4.72	$4.13	-$0.59	62% 2355-1453 (3808)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,830.14

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$244.76

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$244.89

Value

$246.55

PnL

+$1.65

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

FlaznorpCTR

Heat

Invested

$229.18

Value

$195.2

PnL

-$33.98

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$198.87

Value

$184.7

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$65.74

Value

$66.44

PnL

+$0.7

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$11.88

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$4.74

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$6.96

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$1.16

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.59

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (6 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.