Spread: Heat (-24.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (57%) · Jazz at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat14¢Jazz86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$37.86

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 85.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat14%

Jazz86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,012

Combined PnL-$54.9

Heat3 traders

Total Value$610.68

Total Shares4,213

Combined PnL+$17.04

Jazz — 57%Heat — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 88¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$59.88	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 13.9¢	$557.86	$581.22	+$23.36	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 85.6¢	$308.42	$303.94	-$4.48	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
RN1	Jazzavg 82¢	$245.18	$254.15	+$8.97	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 71¢	$85.67	$98.66	+$30.22	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 71¢	$63.17	$66.28	+$3.11
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 9¢	$11.43	$32.39	+$27.1
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 86¢	$42.14	$42.63	+$0.49	49% 446-472 (918)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 19.5¢	$21.83	$20.16	-$1.67	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 15¢	$13.95	$9.3	-$4.65	62% 2355-1453 (3808)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,088.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$59.88

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpCTR

Heat

Invested

$557.86

Value

$581.22

PnL

+$23.36

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$308.42

Value

$303.94

PnL

-$4.48

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

RN1

Jazz

Invested

$245.18

Value

$254.15

PnL

+$8.97

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$85.67

Value

$98.66

PnL

+$30.22

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.14

Value

$42.63

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$21.83

Value

$20.16

PnL

-$1.67

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13.95

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$4.65

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Heat 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.