Spread: Heat (-22.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (42%) · Jazz at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Heat19¢Jazz81¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$10.39

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 81.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat19%

Jazz82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,947

Combined PnL-$49.55

Heat7 traders

Total Value$645.47

Total Shares3,467

Combined PnL+$59.94

Jazz — 42%Heat — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (4 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 81.1¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$76.23	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jazzavg 86¢	$438	$400	-$38	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 86¢	$344	$264	-$80
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 23.5¢	$94	$136	+$42
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 14.6¢	$293.75	$372.69	+$78.95	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTR	Heatavg 22.1¢	$206.95	$173.36	-$33.59	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jazzavg 67¢	$134	$163	+$29	54% 217-188 (405)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Heatavg 15¢	$18	$28.8	+$10.8	64% 179-99 (278)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 70¢	$23.8	$24.31	+$0.51	49% 446-472 (918)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Heatavg 21¢	$21	$23.5	+$2.5	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 12¢	$15	$18.75	+$3.75	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 83¢	$20.26	$18.31	-$1.95	48% 959-1032 (1991)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 24.7¢	$20.28	$15.17	-$5.11	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Heatavg 12¢	$10.56	$13.2	+$2.64	50% 190-192 (382)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 86¢	$6.88	$6	-$0.88	35% 266-489 (755)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$2,295.02

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$76.23

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$438

Value

$400

PnL

-$38

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Invested

$293.75

Value

$372.69

PnL

+$78.95

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$206.95

Value

$173.36

PnL

-$33.59

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jazz

Invested

$134

Value

$163

PnL

+$29

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$18

Value

$28.8

PnL

+$10.8

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$23.8

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$0.51

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$21

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$15

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$20.26

Value

$18.31

PnL

-$1.95

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$20.28

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$5.11

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

lryyyCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$10.56

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$2.64

Record

50%

190-192 (382)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$6.88

Value

PnL

-$0.88

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (4 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.