Heat vs. Kings: O/U 240.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Over4¢Under96¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 96¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,712

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,519

Combined PnL-$23.46

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 71.5¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$297.48	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 71.2¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$816.18	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
RN1	Underavg 66.8¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$394.73	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
betdgeCTR	Overavg 27¢	$320.85	$517.65	+$196.8	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 40.6¢	$575.01	$448.16	-$126.85	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 47¢	$144.07	$133.34	-$10.73	47% 1640-1847 (3487)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 62.2¢	$12.44	$11.3	-$1.14	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 41.6¢	$169.84	$7.74	-$82.66	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 52¢	$4.84	$5.04	+$0.2	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.02	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$4,157.33

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$297.48

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,337.07

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$816.18

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,495.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$394.73

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

betdgeCTR

Over

Invested

$320.85

Value

$517.65

PnL

+$196.8

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$575.01

Value

$448.16

PnL

-$126.85

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$144.07

Value

$133.34

PnL

-$10.73

Record

47%

1640-1847 (3487)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$12.44

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$1.14

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$169.84

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$82.66

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$4.84

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.