Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Heat vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 46¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 9

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.0K

Combined PnL

$460.67

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 45.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares39,577

Combined PnL+$661.04

Over9 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares23,066

Combined PnL-$200.37

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$14.4K	$14.0K	-$321.38	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$10.0K	$9.6K	-$346.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.7¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$25.18
RA RaisuuCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$77.92	64% 16-9 (25)
TM TMingchan	Overavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100	57% 30-23 (53)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 49¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$412.84	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
PL plustiCTR	Underavg 52.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$107.82	47% 17-19 (36)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.5	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$875.81	$819.24	-$56.58	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$490	$515	+$25
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$385.81	$304.24	-$81.58
VeryLucky888	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$795.6	-$314.52	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 51¢	$510	$650	+$140	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$490.18	$612.72	+$122.54	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$512.5	$515.63	+$3.13	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$328.13	+$65.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$250	$187.5	-$62.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$512.5	$515.63	+$3.13	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$328.13	+$65.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$250	$187.5	-$62.5
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 41.5¢	$457.72	$489.94	+$32.22	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.5¢	$255.49	$319.86	+$64.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.1¢	$202.23	$170.08	-$32.15
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 45¢	$358.96	$370.92	+$11.97	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA panpidaras1	Overavg 38¢	$100	$135.53	+$35.53	45% 297-358 (655)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$96.1	$120.03	+$23.93	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36¢	$47.87	$69.15	+$21.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$48.23	$50.88	+$2.65
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 47¢	$95.46	$105.62	+$10.16	48% 521-567 (1088)
RN1	Overavg 49¢	$122.5	$87.5	-$35	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50.55	$65.71	+$15.16	52% 689-647 (1336)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$41.12	$44.76	+$3.64	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$30.49	$31.42	+$0.93	54% 77-66 (143)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 50.3¢	$9.64	$9.48	-$0.16	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 49¢	$7.69	$8.16	+$0.47	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$7.9	$7.43	-$0.47	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$14,354.88

Value

$14.0K

PnL

-$321.38

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Under$9,970.8349.7¢-$346.57

Over$4,384.0551.7¢+$25.18

RaisuuCTR

Under

Invested

$10,022.08

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$77.92

Record

64%

16-9 (25)

TMingchan

Over

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$5,000.58

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$412.84

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

plustiCTR

Under

Invested

$2,049

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$107.82

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$875.81

Value

$819.24

PnL

-$56.58

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Over$49049¢+$25

Under$385.8161.5¢-$81.58

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,115

Value

$795.6

PnL

-$314.52

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$510

Value

$650

PnL

+$140

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$490.18

Value

$612.72

PnL

+$122.54

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$512.5

Value

$515.63

PnL

+$3.13

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Under$262.550¢+$65.63

Over$25050¢-$62.5

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$512.5

Value

$515.63

PnL

+$3.13

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Under$262.550¢+$65.63

Over$25050¢-$62.5

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$457.72

Value

$489.94

PnL

+$32.22

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Over$255.4941.5¢+$64.37

Under$202.2357.1¢-$32.15

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$358.96

Value

$370.92

PnL

+$11.97

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

panpidaras1

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$135.53

PnL

+$35.53

Record

45%

297-358 (655)

takeormakeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$96.1

Value

$120.03

PnL

+$23.93

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

Both legs:

Over$47.8736¢+$21.28

Under$48.2345.5¢+$2.65

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$95.46

Value

$105.62

PnL

+$10.16

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

RN1

Over

Invested

$122.5

Value

$87.5

PnL

-$35

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

PourpelNourpelCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.55

Value

$65.71

PnL

+$15.16

Record

52%

689-647 (1336)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$41.12

Value

$44.76

PnL

+$3.64

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

AppleTiiimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.49

Value

$31.42

PnL

+$0.93

Record

54%

77-66 (143)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.16

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$7.69

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$0.47

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$0.47

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.