Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Kings: O/U 233.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 31¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 9

Over69¢Under31¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$196.67

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 31¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,359

Combined PnL-$366.62

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,707

Combined PnL+$169.95

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$224.66	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$276.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.5¢	$686.47	$738.04	+$51.57
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$214.9	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 58.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$51.44	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
TA takeormake	Overavg 58.6¢	$646.6	$761.82	+$115.22	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$490.23	$408.13	-$82.1	47% 242-270 (512)
RN1CTR	Underavg 39.6¢	$237.85	$231.26	-$6.59	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$205.64	$171.2	-$34.44	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$70.59	$56.14	-$14.45	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$68.48	$54.78	-$13.7	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$18.04	$11.42	+$3.29	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$8.64	$8.2	-$0.44	49% 115-122 (237)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,965.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$224.66

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Under$1,278.8744.6¢-$276.23

Over$686.4760.5¢+$51.57

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,390.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$214.9

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$1,030.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.44

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$646.6

Value

$761.82

PnL

+$115.22

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$490.23

Value

$408.13

PnL

-$82.1

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$237.85

Value

$231.26

PnL

-$6.59

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$205.64

Value

$171.2

PnL

-$34.44

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.59

Value

$56.14

PnL

-$14.45

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68.48

Value

$54.78

PnL

-$13.7

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$18.04

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$3.29

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.64

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.