Spread: Heat (-13.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Heat2¢Kings98¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$346.99

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 97.5¢

+55% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat2%

Kings98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings7 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,912

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Heat7 traders

Total Value$237.1

Total Shares3,421

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Kings — 50%Heat — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Kingsavg 60.1¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kingsavg 65.6¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$236.68	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
RN1	Kingsavg 66.7¢	$729.95	$1.1K	+$337.89	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
65 6512395314597884	Kingsavg 52.1¢	$417.44	$453.16	+$35.72	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 69.8¢	$207.54	$289.14	+$82.6	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
LI Limousin	Kingsavg 50.2¢	$77.34	$133.1	+$55.76	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
VE VenusianCTR	Heatavg 36.4¢	$100.19	$108.69	+$8.5	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
PA Pan9X	Kingsavg 74.2¢	$136.67	$102.37	-$0.35	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Heatavg 34.2¢	$469.8	$93.06	-$376.74	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 62.8¢	$40.05	$62.25	+$22.19
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 34.2¢	$429.74	$30.81	-$398.93
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Heatavg 36.3¢	$741.96	$50.03	-$691.93	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 29¢	$21.76	$29.62	+$7.87	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
BI biying88888CTR	Heatavg 39.2¢	$313.42	$24.4	-$289.02	47% 242-270 (512)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Heatavg 40.4¢	$18.57	$18.17	-$0.4	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Heatavg 39.2¢	$70.84	$5.25	-$65.59	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Heatavg 43.2¢	$1.03	$0.94	-$0.09	45% 462-569 (1031)

Flaznorp

Kings

Invested

$3,581.34

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kings

Invested

$4,309.7

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$236.68

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

RN1

Kings

Invested

$729.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$337.89

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

6512395314597884

Kings

Invested

$417.44

Value

$453.16

PnL

+$35.72

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$207.54

Value

$289.14

PnL

+$82.6

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Limousin

Kings

Invested

$77.34

Value

$133.1

PnL

+$55.76

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

VenusianCTR

Heat

Invested

$100.19

Value

$108.69

PnL

+$8.5

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Pan9X

Kings

Invested

$136.67

Value

$102.37

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

takeormakeARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$469.8

Value

$93.06

PnL

-$376.74

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

Both legs:

Kings$40.0562.8¢+$22.19

Heat$429.7434.2¢-$398.93

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Heat

Invested

$741.96

Value

$50.03

PnL

-$691.93

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$21.76

Value

$29.62

PnL

+$7.87

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

biying88888CTR

Heat

Invested

$313.42

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$289.02

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$18.57

Value

$18.17

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$70.84

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$65.59

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.09

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.