Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Kings (74%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Heat (-12.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (46%) · Heat at 27¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 9

Heat27¢Kings73¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 26.5¢

-43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat27%

Kings74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,592

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Kings7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,824

Combined PnL+$246.06

Heat — 46%Kings — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Kingsavg 59.4¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$143.79	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 59.4¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$356.22
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 50.7¢	$1.1K	$593.28	-$500.02
LI LimousinCTR	Heatavg 47.8¢	$3.7K	$2.1K	$-1.7K	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kingsavg 43.1¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$403.11	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 43.1¢	$832.93	$1.4K	+$586.48
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 39.6¢	$554.3	$370.93	-$183.37
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Heatavg 55.9¢	$1.0K	$772.12	-$233.12	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 65.8¢	$459.52	$513.31	+$53.79
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 55.9¢	$545.72	$258.81	-$286.91
RN1ARB<$100	Kingsavg 55¢	$658.12	$613.37	-$44.75	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 55¢	$346.2	$361.9	+$15.69
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 52.7¢	$311.92	$251.48	-$60.44
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Kingsavg 63¢	$818.37	$587.56	-$84.4	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
LI LightParadox	Kingsavg 49.8¢	$323.22	$476.34	+$153.12	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kingsavg 48¢	$291.54	$361.39	+$69.85	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
BI biying88888CTR	Heatavg 42.1¢	$358.33	$225.78	-$132.55	47% 242-270 (512)
38 38791873984189	Kingsavg 43.1¢	$94.84	$153.66	+$64.76	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Kingsavg 53¢	$116.21	$128.26	+$12.06	48% 521-567 (1088)
TA takeormakeCTR	Heatavg 38.4¢	$157.59	$119.55	-$38.04	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
A4 0xa466...1c77CTR<$100	Heatavg 32.1¢	$73.76	$95.45	+$21.69	—
VE VenusianCTR	Heatavg 42.2¢	$139.72	$87.81	-$51.92	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$52.41	$66.34	+$13.94	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kingsavg 40.7¢	$25.66	$31.61	+$16.75	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Heatavg 45.2¢	$10.29	$9.44	-$0.85	47% 2148-2414 (4562)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$2,715.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$143.79

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Kings$1,622.5959.4¢+$356.22

Heat$1,093.2950.7¢-$500.02

LimousinCTR

Heat

Invested

$3,717.44

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,387.23

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$403.11

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Kings$832.9343.1¢+$586.48

Heat$554.339.6¢-$183.37

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,005.24

Value

$772.12

PnL

-$233.12

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Kings$459.5265.8¢+$53.79

Heat$545.7255.9¢-$286.91

RN1ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$658.12

Value

$613.37

PnL

-$44.75

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Kings$346.255¢+$15.69

Heat$311.9252.7¢-$60.44

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Kings

Invested

$818.37

Value

$587.56

PnL

-$84.4

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

LightParadox

Kings

Invested

$323.22

Value

$476.34

PnL

+$153.12

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

omnibus-076daa

Kings

Invested

$291.54

Value

$361.39

PnL

+$69.85

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

biying88888CTR

Heat

Invested

$358.33

Value

$225.78

PnL

-$132.55

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

38791873984189

Kings

Invested

$94.84

Value

$153.66

PnL

+$64.76

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Multicoloured-Serf

Kings

Invested

$116.21

Value

$128.26

PnL

+$12.06

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

takeormakeCTR

Heat

Invested

$157.59

Value

$119.55

PnL

-$38.04

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

0xa466...1c77CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$73.76

Value

$95.45

PnL

+$21.69

Record

—

VenusianCTR

Heat

Invested

$139.72

Value

$87.81

PnL

-$51.92

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Kings

Invested

$52.41

Value

$66.34

PnL

+$13.94

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Pan9X<$100

Kings

Invested

$25.66

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$16.75

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$10.29

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.85

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.