Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Kings (58%). 13 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-11.5)

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (76%) · Heat at 42¢ · $91K held · ended Nov 9

Heat42¢Kings58¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 76%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 42¢

-16% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 58%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat42%

Kings58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat13 traders

Total Value$49.4K

Total Shares109,618

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Kings4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,816

Combined PnL+$374.76

Heat — 76%Kings — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$32.6K	$29.9K	$-2.7K	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 50¢	$25.4K	$21.6K	$-3.8K
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50¢	$7.2K	$8.3K	+$1.1K
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Heatavg 49.5¢	$26.2K	$26.2K	-$23.09	50% 3041-2982 (6023)
TM TMingchanCTR	Heatavg 51¢	$15.3K	$11.8K	$-3.5K	57% 30-23 (53)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Heatavg 49¢	$7.1K	$6.0K	$-1.1K	48% 521-567 (1088)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Heatavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$99.59	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 49¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$134.68
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$35.09
VeryLucky888CTR	Heatavg 50¢	$6.0K	$3.1K	-$535.15	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Heatavg 49.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$18.43	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 49.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22.84
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51¢	$471.01	$475.42	+$4.41
nigiri99	Kingsavg 49.6¢	$876.68	$1.0K	+$130.05	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
GC GC-P	Kingsavg 49.3¢	$740	$855	+$115	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Heatavg 51¢	$1.0K	$850	-$170	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
RN1ARB<$100	Kingsavg 51.3¢	$878.01	$832.74	-$45.27	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 51.3¢	$695.5	$658.17	-$37.33
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 53.8¢	$182.51	$174.56	-$7.95
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 50.9¢	$979.99	$830.09	-$44.4	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 50.9¢	$538.53	$450.02	-$87.93
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.7¢	$335.19	$380.08	+$43.54
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$772.92	$786.16	+$13.24	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50¢	$475.36	$494.58	+$19.22
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 49¢	$297.56	$291.58	-$5.98
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Heatavg 51¢	$780.6	$734.68	-$45.92	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Heatavg 48.8¢	$643.41	$625.82	-$17.6	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 48.8¢	$458.51	$455.77	-$2.74
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 56¢	$184.9	$170.04	-$14.86
NM NM-P	Kingsavg 49.5¢	$495	$575	+$80	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kingsavg 50.3¢	$325.05	$333.19	+$8.14	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 50.3¢	$215.76	$195.33	-$20.42
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 43.2¢	$109.29	$137.85	+$28.56
BI biying88888CTR	Heatavg 51.2¢	$323.39	$312.34	-$11.04	47% 242-270 (512)
LI Limousin	Kingsavg 45.5¢	$250	$299.71	+$49.71	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
VE VenusianCTR	Heatavg 44¢	$133.62	$147.29	+$13.67	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Heatavg 47.7¢	$117.29	$104.57	-$12.72	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Heatavg 50¢	$87.55	$74.38	-$13.17	50% 8560-8732 (17292)
PA Pan9XCTR	Heatavg 51.7¢	$118.46	$55.63	-$5.55	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$13	$11.38	-$1.63	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Heatavg 45.2¢	$1.03	$1.2	+$0.18	45% 462-569 (1031)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$32,623.14

Value

$29.9K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Heat$25,447.7250¢$-3.8K

Kings$7,175.4250¢+$1.1K

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Heat

Invested

$26,192.36

Value

$26.2K

PnL

-$23.09

Record

50%

3041-2982 (6023)

TMingchanCTR

Heat

Invested

$15,300

Value

$11.8K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Heat

Invested

$7,125.23

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

hi774cARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$3,817.42

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$99.59

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

Both legs:

Heat$2,639.6349¢+$134.68

Kings$1,177.7950¢-$35.09

VeryLucky888CTR

Heat

Invested

$6,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$535.15

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$1,581.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.43

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Heat$1,110.849.5¢-$22.84

Kings$471.0151¢+$4.41

nigiri99

Kings

Invested

$876.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$130.05

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

GC-P

Kings

Invested

$740

Value

$855

PnL

+$115

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Heat

Invested

$1,020

Value

$850

PnL

-$170

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

RN1ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$878.01

Value

$832.74

PnL

-$45.27

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Kings$695.551.3¢-$37.33

Heat$182.5153.8¢-$7.95

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$979.99

Value

$830.09

PnL

-$44.4

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Heat$538.5350.9¢-$87.93

Kings$335.1950.7¢+$43.54

Anon455ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$772.92

Value

$786.16

PnL

+$13.24

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Kings$475.3650¢+$19.22

Heat$297.5649¢-$5.98

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Heat

Invested

$780.6

Value

$734.68

PnL

-$45.92

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$643.41

Value

$625.82

PnL

-$17.6

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Heat$458.5148.8¢-$2.74

Kings$184.956¢-$14.86

NM-P

Kings

Invested

$495

Value

$575

PnL

+$80

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$325.05

Value

$333.19

PnL

+$8.14

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Kings$215.7650.3¢-$20.42

Heat$109.2943.2¢+$28.56

biying88888CTR

Heat

Invested

$323.39

Value

$312.34

PnL

-$11.04

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

Limousin

Kings

Invested

$250

Value

$299.71

PnL

+$49.71

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

VenusianCTR

Heat

Invested

$133.62

Value

$147.29

PnL

+$13.67

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

SnakeBallCTR

Heat

Invested

$117.29

Value

$104.57

PnL

-$12.72

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

RLWGCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$87.55

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$13.17

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

Pan9XCTR

Heat

Invested

$118.46

Value

$55.63

PnL

-$5.55

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$13

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$1.63

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 58%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.