Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Kings — but Lakers won instead.
Spread: Lakers (-12.5)
Resolved Lakers. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Kings. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
36
Kings 49%
4 arb excluded
$164.1K
$-59.9K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 36 top traders (47%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Lakersavg 48.9¢ | $43.9K | $36.6K | +$18.7K | 42% 7895-10697 (18592) |
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814 | Lakersavg 48¢ | $11.0K | $22.9K | +$11.9K | 46% 215-249 (464) |
GO googleplayCTR | Kingsavg 51.6¢ | $67.8K | — | $-67.8K | 50% 56-55 (111) |
IA ianf2026 | Lakersavg 49.7¢ | $11.0K | $22.2K | +$11.2K | 48% 100-109 (209) |
FY FYYY0689 | Lakersavg 48¢ | $8.9K | $18.6K | +$9.7K | 49% 39-41 (80) |
AY ay118 | Lakersavg 48.2¢ | $9.1K | $19.0K | +$9.8K | 42% 47-65 (112) |
HA hang808 | Lakersavg 49¢ | $7.8K | $16.0K | +$8.2K | 41% 155-227 (382) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Kingsavg 52¢ | $41.6K | — | $-41.6K | 53% 652-575 (1227) |
PP ppku6298 | Lakersavg 47.9¢ | $5.0K | $10.5K | +$5.4K | 44% 111-141 (252) |
AN analdesutructor | Lakersavg 48.7¢ | $8.0K | $8.0K | +$4.1K | 52% 183-171 (354) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Kingsavg 50¢ | $25.7K | — | $-12.8K | 48% 339-362 (701) |
NM NM-P | Lakersavg 48.2¢ | $4.9K | $2.5K | +$99.98 | 64% 9816-5452 (15268) |
HE HerdoniaARB<$100 | Kingsavg 51.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$186.74 | 51% 3648-3563 (7211) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 48¢ | $996.84 | $2.1K | +$311.51 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 51.8¢ | $1.7K | — | -$498.25 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kingsavg 51¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 54% 18155-15267 (33422) |
AP AppleTiiimeCTR | Kingsavg 51¢ | $5.1K | — | $-5.1K | 54% 65-55 (120) |
SE sentrio | Lakersavg 48¢ | $2.7K | $1.6K | +$299.77 | 50% 25717-25409 (51126) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Kingsavg 46.9¢ | $6.8K | $569.66 | +$316.67 | 46% 1488-1751 (3239) |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 46.9¢ | $2.9K | — | +$285.34 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 44¢ | $250.65 | $569.66 | +$31.33 | |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Lakersavg 55.7¢ | $5.2K | $1.4K | +$520.24 | 50% 4392-4322 (8714) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Kingsavg 39.8¢ | $3.8K | $755.03 | -$831.09 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 47.5¢ | $358.41 | $755.03 | +$396.6 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 39.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | |
AC AckbarCTR | Kingsavg 51¢ | $10.0K | — | $-5.1K | 49% 23-24 (47) |
 RN1 | Lakersavg 48¢ | $1.3K | $750 | +$16.25 | 53% 60903-53272 (114175) |
HI hi774cCTR | Kingsavg 51¢ | $6.7K | — | $-3.4K | 50% 5018-4940 (9958) |
TA takeormake | Lakersavg 42.4¢ | $544.97 | $385.56 | +$127.04 | 53% 4842-4378 (9220) |
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR | Kingsavg 52¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 39% 435-689 (1124) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Kingsavg 45¢ | $2.9K | — | -$212.01 | 48% 60543-65164 (125707) |
Invested
$43,905.13
Value
$36.6K
PnL
+$18.7K
Record
42%
7895-10697 (18592)
Invested
$11,003.52
Value
$22.9K
PnL
+$11.9K
Record
46%
215-249 (464)
Invested
$67,759.13
Value
—
PnL
$-67.8K
Record
50%
56-55 (111)
Invested
$11,023.58
Value
$22.2K
PnL
+$11.2K
Record
48%
100-109 (209)
Invested
$8,935.98
Value
$18.6K
PnL
+$9.7K
Record
49%
39-41 (80)
Invested
$9,136.96
Value
$19.0K
PnL
+$9.8K
Record
42%
47-65 (112)
Invested
$7,840
Value
$16.0K
PnL
+$8.2K
Record
41%
155-227 (382)
Invested
$41,599.39
Value
—
PnL
$-41.6K
Record
53%
652-575 (1227)
Invested
$5,019.22
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$5.4K
Record
44%
111-141 (252)
Invested
$7,991.05
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
52%
183-171 (354)
Invested
$25,677.81
Value
—
PnL
$-12.8K
Record
48%
339-362 (701)
Invested
$4,857.89
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$99.98
Record
64%
9816-5452 (15268)
Invested
$2,263.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$186.74
Record
51%
3648-3563 (7211)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,733.86
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
54%
18155-15267 (33422)
Invested
$5,100
Value
—
PnL
$-5.1K
Record
54%
65-55 (120)
Invested
$2,725.66
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$299.77
Record
50%
25717-25409 (51126)
Invested
$6,849.45
Value
$569.66
PnL
+$316.67
Record
46%
1488-1751 (3239)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,235.52
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$520.24
Record
50%
4392-4322 (8714)
Invested
$3,842.59
Value
$755.03
PnL
-$831.09
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Both legs:
Invested
$10,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.1K
Record
49%
23-24 (47)
RN1Invested
$1,250
Value
$750
PnL
+$16.25
Record
53%
60903-53272 (114175)
Invested
$6,717.49
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
50%
5018-4940 (9958)
Invested
$544.97
Value
$385.56
PnL
+$127.04
Record
53%
4842-4378 (9220)
Invested
$1,559.99
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
39%
435-689 (1124)
Invested
$2,919.06
Value
—
PnL
-$212.01
Record
48%
60543-65164 (125707)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ferrariChampions2026
Lakers — $36.6K
0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814
Lakers — $22.9K
googleplay
CTRKings — $0
ianf2026
Lakers — $22.2K
FYYY0689
Lakers — $18.6K
ay118
Lakers — $19.0K
hang808
Lakers — $16.0K
monkeymashingkeyboard
CTRKings — $0
ppku6298
Lakers — $10.5K
analdesutructor
Lakers — $8.0K