Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 240.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 80¢ · $969 held · ended Nov 15

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$968.9

Combined PnL

-$12.51

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 79.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$893.5

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL-$10.89

Over5 traders

Total Value$75.39

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$1.62

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 82¢	$459.2	$442.4	-$16.8	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
RN1	Underavg 82.3¢	$344.61	$327.9	+$0.12	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 81.8¢	$240.75	$119.61	+$5.74	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$27	$24.75	-$2.25	48% 652-715 (1367)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$17.4	$18.46	+$1.06	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$18	$16.5	-$1.5	66% 793-417 (1210)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 19.3¢	$9.28	$10.08	+$0.8	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$5.33	$5.6	+$0.27	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
GA Gaditima<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.55	$3.59	+$0.05	49% 408-422 (830)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$459.2

Value

$442.4

PnL

-$16.8

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

RN1

Under

Invested

$344.61

Value

$327.9

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$240.75

Value

$119.61

PnL

+$5.74

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

652-715 (1367)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.4

Value

$18.46

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

66%

793-417 (1210)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.28

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.6

PnL

+$0.27

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Gaditima<$100

Under

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.59

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.