Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 230.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$42.29

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,501

Combined PnL+$36.67

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,775

Combined PnL+$5.62

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$908.41	$943.83	+$35.43	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
nigiri99	Underavg 60.5¢	$675.52	$669.6	-$5.92	50% 760-746 (1506)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$489.99	$494.99	+$5	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 59¢	$372.1	$378.4	+$6.31	48% 134-144 (278)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 58¢	$379.8	$360.79	-$19.01	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$261.58	$241.29	-$20.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$118.22	$119.51	+$1.29
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47¢	$142.92	$141.38	-$1.54	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 39¢	$111.04	$113.89	+$2.85	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 40.4¢	$424.5	$62.37	+$6.79	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.4¢	$31.52	$40.17	+$44.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$23.47	$22.2	-$38.12
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$55.39	$20.11	+$0.01	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$11.59	$11.73	+$0.14	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.05	$6.98	-$0.07	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$3	+$0.1	69% 1741-780 (2521)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$908.41

Value

$943.83

PnL

+$35.43

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$675.52

Value

$669.6

PnL

-$5.92

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$489.99

Value

$494.99

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$372.1

Value

$378.4

PnL

+$6.31

Record

48%

134-144 (278)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$379.8

Value

$360.79

PnL

-$19.01

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Under$261.5858¢-$20.29

Over$118.2246¢+$1.29

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$142.92

Value

$141.38

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$111.04

Value

$113.89

PnL

+$2.85

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$424.5

Value

$62.37

PnL

+$6.79

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Over$31.5240.4¢+$44.91

Under$23.4751.3¢-$38.12

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.39

Value

$20.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.05

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.