Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 40¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$48.7

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 39.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$907.42

Total Shares2,302

Combined PnL-$54.99

Over7 traders

Total Value$453.91

Total Shares708

Combined PnL+$6.29

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 42.3¢	$554.28	$537.73	-$16.55	48% 134-144 (278)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 62¢	$254.58	$260.73	+$6.16	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$197.89	$186.96	-$10.93	50% 760-746 (1506)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 38¢	$152.55	$126.53	-$26.02	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 58¢	$76.56	$75.24	-$1.32	36% 210-367 (577)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 41¢	$414.39	$50.06	-$0.23	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 56¢	$53.62	$40.77	+$1.02	44% 349-436 (785)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 59¢	$33.94	$33.94	+$0	47% 676-773 (1449)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 57.8¢	$40.66	$27.97	+$0.12	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
AN Anon455<$100	Overavg 62¢	$12.09	$12.38	+$0.29	49% 497-511 (1008)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.41	$6.14	-$1.27	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
RN1<$100	Overavg 69¢	$2.85	$2.87	+$0.02	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$554.28

Value

$537.73

PnL

-$16.55

Record

48%

134-144 (278)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$254.58

Value

$260.73

PnL

+$6.16

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$197.89

Value

$186.96

PnL

-$10.93

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$152.55

Value

$126.53

PnL

-$26.02

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$76.56

Value

$75.24

PnL

-$1.32

Record

36%

210-367 (577)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$414.39

Value

$50.06

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$53.62

Value

$40.77

PnL

+$1.02

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$33.94

Value

$33.94

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$40.66

Value

$27.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Anon455<$100

Over

Invested

$12.09

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.41

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$1.27

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.