Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 232.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 64¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$94.05

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 64¢

-15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL-$155.72

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,292

Combined PnL+$61.68

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 81¢	$613.7	$552.86	-$46.34	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 25¢	$477.79	$487.34	+$9.56	54% 217-188 (405)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 61.3¢	$411.89	$453.47	+$41.58	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 36.9¢	$340.95	$433.9	+$92.95	56% 502-393 (895)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 85¢	$425	$405	-$20	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.8¢	$406.97	$304.09	-$102.88	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$198.84	$158.01	-$40.83	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 85¢	$212.5	$116.28	-$40.13	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 68.7¢	$90.38	$93.75	+$3.37	49% 446-472 (918)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.7¢	$67.9	$52.39	-$15.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.5¢	$22.48	$41.36	+$18.88
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 54¢	$54	$65.5	+$11.5	64% 179-99 (278)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 75.5¢	$7.55	$8.1	+$0.55	55% 399-332 (731)

RN1

Under

Invested

$613.7

Value

$552.86

PnL

-$46.34

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$477.79

Value

$487.34

PnL

+$9.56

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$411.89

Value

$453.47

PnL

+$41.58

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$340.95

Value

$433.9

PnL

+$92.95

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$425

Value

$405

PnL

-$20

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$406.97

Value

$304.09

PnL

-$102.88

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$198.84

Value

$158.01

PnL

-$40.83

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$212.5

Value

$116.28

PnL

-$40.13

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$90.38

Value

$93.75

PnL

+$3.37

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Both legs:

Under$67.968.7¢-$15.51

Over$22.4825.5¢+$18.88

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$54

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.55

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.55

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.