Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$26.12

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 83¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL+$209.42

Under5 traders

Total Value$412.66

Total Shares1,590

Combined PnL-$235.54

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 78.7¢	$860.35	$940.31	+$79.96	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$425.93	$536.7	+$110.76	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$263.4	$386.32	+$122.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 13¢	$162.53	$150.38	-$12.16
RN1CTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$488.2	$286.47	-$201.73	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 46¢	$93.84	$175.44	+$81.6	30% 134-317 (451)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 46.5¢	$119.19	$167.96	+$48.76	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 31¢	$108.81	$66.03	+$0	48% 959-1032 (1991)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$71.1	$33.26	-$37.85	51% 3680-3512 (7192)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$29.45	$13.95	+$0	49% 446-472 (918)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.2¢	$11.25	$12.95	+$4.04	55% 399-332 (731)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.28	$7.38	-$0.9	28% 298-765 (1063)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$860.35

Value

$940.31

PnL

+$79.96

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$425.93

Value

$536.7

PnL

+$110.76

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Over$263.460¢+$122.92

Under$162.5313¢-$12.16

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$488.2

Value

$286.47

PnL

-$201.73

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$93.84

Value

$175.44

PnL

+$81.6

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$119.19

Value

$167.96

PnL

+$48.76

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$108.81

Value

$66.03

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.1

Value

$33.26

PnL

-$37.85

Record

51%

3680-3512 (7192)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.45

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.25

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$4.04

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$8.28

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$0.9

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.