Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 214.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 22¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$49.44

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 21.5¢

-45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$359.82

Total Shares1,225

Combined PnL-$117.56

Over4 traders

Total Value$238.19

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$68.12

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 63.7¢	$491.42	$421.64	-$69.78	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.7¢	$255.62	$296.84	+$41.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$235.8	$124.8	-$111
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 75¢	$244	$200	-$44	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Over leg	Overavg 75¢	$150	$148	-$2
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$94	$52	-$42
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$314.05	$197.78	-$116.27	56% 502-393 (895)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.5¢	$132.06	$194.91	+$62.85	30% 134-317 (451)
RN1CTR	Underavg 25.6¢	$106.2	$99.53	-$6.67	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$42.87	$40.27	-$2.6	48% 959-1032 (1991)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 69¢	$26.91	$30.62	+$3.71	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 32.4¢	$18.75	$11.24	+$3.23	55% 399-332 (731)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$6.26	$11	+$4.75	29% 307-748 (1055)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 70.9¢	$6.27	$7.17	+$0.9	49% 446-472 (918)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 69¢	$4.83	$5.5	+$0.67	64% 179-99 (278)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$491.42

Value

$421.64

PnL

-$69.78

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Over$255.6263.7¢+$41.22

Under$235.849.1¢-$111

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$244

Value

$200

PnL

-$44

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Over$15075¢-$2

Under$9447¢-$42

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$314.05

Value

$197.78

PnL

-$116.27

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$132.06

Value

$194.91

PnL

+$62.85

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$106.2

Value

$99.53

PnL

-$6.67

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.87

Value

$40.27

PnL

-$2.6

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$26.91

Value

$30.62

PnL

+$3.71

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.75

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$3.23

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.26

Value

$11

PnL

+$4.75

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$6.27

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$4.83

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.67

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.