Spread: Suns (-30.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (29%) · Clippers at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Suns4¢Clippers96¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 29%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$9.57

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 96¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns4%

Clippers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,697

Combined PnL+$27.83

Suns5 traders

Total Value$96.62

Total Shares2,214

Combined PnL-$37.4

Clippers — 29%Suns — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 95.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$8.7	56% 502-393 (895)
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 93.5¢	$1.4K	$498.02	+$19.13	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Sunsavg 7¢	$90.68	$38.79	-$51.89	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Sunsavg 4.6¢	$21.95	$31.33	+$9.38	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 3.3¢	$7.24	$16.68	+$9.45	49% 446-472 (918)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Sunsavg 7.5¢	$5.52	$5.5	-$0.02	48% 959-1032 (1991)
RN1CTR<$100	Sunsavg 6¢	$8.64	$4.32	-$4.32	58% 3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$2,114.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$8.7

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$1,428.89

Value

$498.02

PnL

+$19.13

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$90.68

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$51.89

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$21.95

Value

$31.33

PnL

+$9.38

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$7.24

Value

$16.68

PnL

+$9.45

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

RN1CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$8.64

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$4.32

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.