Spread: Suns (-16.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (69%) · Suns at 94¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Suns94¢Clippers6¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 69%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$514.22

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 93.5¢

+79% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns94%

Clippers7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns9 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares11,139

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$641.74

Total Shares8,472

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Suns — 69%Clippers — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 47.4¢	$3.0K	$4.8K	+$1.8K	56% 504-395 (899)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 67.5¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$545.46	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Sunsavg 42¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	+$709.25	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1	Sunsavg 49.3¢	$475.88	$715.75	+$239.87	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 62¢	$434.12	$626.63	+$192.5	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 56.3¢	$4.1K	$541.31	$-3.5K	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 44¢	$216.25	$207.52	+$11.56	48% 969-1052 (2021)
BI biying88888CTR	Clippersavg 56¢	$649.6	$87	-$562.6	27% 63-170 (233)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 45¢	$32.02	$54.08	+$22.06	35% 266-490 (756)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Sunsavg 34¢	$19.72	$44.08	+$24.36	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 46.1¢	$39.45	$9.11	+$7.74	49% 450-474 (924)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Clippersavg 10¢	$6.82	$7.16	+$0.34	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 16.8¢	$4.39	$6.26	+$1.88	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$2,971.09

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$1,676.83

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$545.46

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Suns

Invested

$1,469.58

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$709.25

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$475.88

Value

$715.75

PnL

+$239.87

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$434.12

Value

$626.63

PnL

+$192.5

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$4,062.57

Value

$541.31

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$216.25

Value

$207.52

PnL

+$11.56

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

biying88888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$649.6

Value

$87

PnL

-$562.6

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$32.02

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$22.06

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Suns

Invested

$19.72

Value

$44.08

PnL

+$24.36

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$39.45

Value

$9.11

PnL

+$7.74

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$6.82

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.39

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$1.88

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.