Spread: Suns (-14.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (60%) · Suns at 68¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Suns68¢Clippers32¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

-$485.64

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 68¢

+40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns68%

Clippers32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,889

Combined PnL+$355.14

Clippers6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,392

Combined PnL-$840.78

Suns — 60%Clippers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Sunsavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$68.96	54% 217-188 (405)
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$202.6	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Clippersavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$589.66	47% 500-558 (1058)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 50.1¢	$872.27	$1.0K	+$172.54	56% 502-393 (895)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Clippersavg 47.7¢	$462.2	$329.24	-$132.95	29% 307-748 (1055)
LI LimousinCTR	Clippersavg 48.1¢	$303.33	$302.44	-$0.89	29% 313-784 (1097)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 42.3¢	$264.15	$280.07	+$15.92	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
VE VenusianCTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$295.21	$212.18	-$83.03	28% 304-772 (1076)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Clippersavg 47.3¢	$236.94	$170.14	-$66.8	28% 298-765 (1063)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Clippersavg 65¢	$136.5	$169.05	+$32.55	30% 134-317 (451)
RN1ARB<$100	Clippersavg 53¢	$231.32	$93.47	-$43.85	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 53¢	$106	$66	-$40
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52¢	$21.32	$27.47	-$3.85
38 38791873984189<$100	Sunsavg 27.4¢	$33.07	$63.4	+$30.33	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 51.4¢	$41.09	$41.99	+$0.9	49% 446-472 (918)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 52¢	$37.65	$38.01	+$0.36	35% 266-489 (755)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$28.42	$29.26	+$0.84	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
TA takeormake<$100	Sunsavg 54¢	$6.42	$7.02	+$0.59	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Suns

Invested

$1,699.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$68.96

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$1,134.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$202.6

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,768.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$589.66

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$872.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$172.54

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

MadridTimeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$462.2

Value

$329.24

PnL

-$132.95

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

LimousinCTR

Clippers

Invested

$303.33

Value

$302.44

PnL

-$0.89

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$264.15

Value

$280.07

PnL

+$15.92

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

VenusianCTR

Clippers

Invested

$295.21

Value

$212.18

PnL

-$83.03

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

LightParadoxCTR

Clippers

Invested

$236.94

Value

$170.14

PnL

-$66.8

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

justaluckydudeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$136.5

Value

$169.05

PnL

+$32.55

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

RN1ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$231.32

Value

$93.47

PnL

-$43.85

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Invested

$33.07

Value

$63.4

PnL

+$30.33

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$41.09

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$37.65

Value

$38.01

PnL

+$0.36

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Suns

Invested

$28.42

Value

$29.26

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

takeormake<$100

Suns

Invested

$6.42

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.59

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.