Spread: Suns (-10.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (73%) · Suns at 54¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 11

Suns54¢Clippers46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$507.01

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 54¢

+16% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns54%

Clippers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns11 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares12,554

Combined PnL+$455.81

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,761

Combined PnL-$962.82

Suns — 73%Clippers — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sunsavg 47¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$417.76	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Clippersavg 52.9¢	$5.3K	$4.5K	-$839.24	8% 8-94 (102)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$121.76	56% 502-393 (895)
RN1ARB<$100	Sunsavg 48.5¢	$394.77	$388.44	-$6.32	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 48.5¢	$304.54	$279.23	-$25.31
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 45.9¢	$90.23	$109.21	+$18.98
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 26.1¢	$102.75	$185.27	+$82.52	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
VE Venusian	Sunsavg 45¢	$133.55	$164.71	+$31.16	28% 304-772 (1076)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 37.2¢	$113.22	$138.63	+$25.41	48% 959-1032 (1991)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Clippersavg 52.4¢	$214.16	$132.91	-$81.25	47% 500-558 (1058)
LI LightParadox<$100	Sunsavg 45¢	$69.03	$85.2	+$16.17	28% 298-765 (1063)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 55¢	$116.35	$72.51	-$43.84	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$51.68	$53.2	+$1.52	54% 217-188 (405)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Sunsavg 46¢	$46	$50	+$4	64% 179-99 (278)
BI biying88888<$100	Sunsavg 46¢	$46	$45.5	-$0.5	27% 63-170 (233)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 47.4¢	$37.9	$37.6	-$0.3	49% 446-472 (918)
SE sentrio<$100	Sunsavg 26¢	$1.73	$3.13	+$1.4	35% 266-489 (755)
TA takeormake<$100	Sunsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Suns

Invested

$4,683.24

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$417.76

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

luckycat888888CTR

Clippers

Invested

$5,289.24

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$839.24

Record

8-94 (102)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$1,189.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$121.76

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

RN1ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$394.77

Value

$388.44

PnL

-$6.32

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Suns$304.5448.5¢-$25.31

Clippers$90.2345.9¢+$18.98

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$102.75

Value

$185.27

PnL

+$82.52

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Venusian

Suns

Invested

$133.55

Value

$164.71

PnL

+$31.16

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$113.22

Value

$138.63

PnL

+$25.41

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Clippers

Invested

$214.16

Value

$132.91

PnL

-$81.25

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

LightParadox<$100

Suns

Invested

$69.03

Value

$85.2

PnL

+$16.17

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$116.35

Value

$72.51

PnL

-$43.84

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$51.68

Value

$53.2

PnL

+$1.52

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

suitcase6628<$100

Suns

Invested

$46

Value

$50

PnL

+$4

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

biying88888<$100

Suns

Invested

$46

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$37.9

Value

$37.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

sentrio<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.73

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$1.4

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

takeormake<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Suns

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.