Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 33¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$3.4K
-$249.35
48¢ → 33¢
-31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Underavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.9K | +$419.71 | 48% 720-766 (1486) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $949.98 | -$873.94 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 52¢ | $626.89 | $508.88 | +$204.15 | 54% 1975-1650 (3625) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $19.41 | $19.71 | +$0.29 | 54% 6042-5119 (11161) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $2.83 | $3.22 | +$0.39 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.25 | +$0.05 | 38% 1353-2203 (3556) |
Invested
$1,454.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$419.71
Record
48%
720-766 (1486)
Invested
$1,823.92
Value
$949.98
PnL
-$873.94
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$626.89
Value
$508.88
PnL
+$204.15
Record
54%
1975-1650 (3625)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.41
Value
$19.71
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
6042-5119 (11161)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$0.39
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
38%
1353-2203 (3556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.