Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 59¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$543.62

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 59¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,922

Combined PnL-$645.44

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,167

Combined PnL+$101.83

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	-$723.28	7% 16-211 (227)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$139.43	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 52¢	$646	$559.04	-$86.96	48% 720-766 (1486)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 50.2¢	$802.6	$327.15	+$25.8	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.6¢	$147.22	$171.33	+$24.11	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
RN1CTR	Overavg 42¢	$152.56	$143.65	-$8.92	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$48.01	$98.01	+$50.01	36% 649-1179 (1828)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$35.28	$72.03	+$36.75	69% 1738-777 (2515)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 46¢	$25.45	$24.9	-$0.55	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

shaillakhaniCTR

Over

Invested

$4,500

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$723.28

Record

16-211 (227)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,600.41

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$139.43

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$646

Value

$559.04

PnL

-$86.96

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$802.6

Value

$327.15

PnL

+$25.8

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$147.22

Value

$171.33

PnL

+$24.11

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$152.56

Value

$143.65

PnL

-$8.92

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.01

Value

$98.01

PnL

+$50.01

Record

36%

649-1179 (1828)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.28

Value

$72.03

PnL

+$36.75

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$25.45

Value

$24.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.