Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 52¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

$170.2

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares16,818

Combined PnL-$51.21

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares17,347

Combined PnL+$221.41

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$73.55	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$99.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25.72
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$51.02	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
nehcnehc	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$141.82	36% 63-110 (173)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$99.02	9% 17-181 (198)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 49¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$58.06	48% 131-144 (275)
nigiri99	Overavg 50¢	$697.5	$718.43	+$20.93	50% 747-737 (1484)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 50¢	$400	$400	+$0	30% 489-1134 (1623)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	42% 548-748 (1296)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$55.69	$55.98	+$0.29	48% 720-766 (1486)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$19.4	$20	+$0.6	56% 668-530 (1198)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,470.31

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$73.55

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Over$4,833.5848.5¢+$99.26

Under$2,636.7351¢-$25.72

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$5,102.2

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$51.02

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$141.82

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Under

Invested

$2,999.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$99.02

Record

17-181 (198)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$2,770.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$58.06

Record

48%

131-144 (275)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$697.5

Value

$718.43

PnL

+$20.93

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$400

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.69

Value

$55.98

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$19.4

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.