Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (77%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (75%) · Pacers at 23¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

76ers77¢Pacers23¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 75%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$31.89

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 23¢

-41% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 77%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers77%

Pacers23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers12 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares10,786

Combined PnL-$88.13

76ers4 traders

Total Value$686.77

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL+$56.25

Pacers — 75%76ers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 39¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$40.21	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FL Flaznorp	76ersavg 62.3¢	$582.14	$640.38	+$58.24	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pacersavg 35¢	$1.4K	$325.76	-$7.87	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
RN1CTR	Pacersavg 41¢	$415.59	$318.97	-$96.63	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Pacersavg 39¢	$86.65	$89.52	+$2.87	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Pacersavg 45¢	$67.5	$67.5	+$0	48% 643-686 (1329)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 42¢	$66.16	$55.92	-$10.24	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pacersavg 44.9¢	$44.74	$42.9	-$1.84	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 59¢	$36	$36.91	+$0.92	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Pacersavg 57¢	$49.59	$34.37	-$15.22	48% 650-715 (1365)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$33.28	$31.86	-$1.42	66% 786-413 (1199)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 39.8¢	$27.49	$27.28	-$0.21	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
TH thatsabing0<$100	76ersavg 64¢	$10.76	$7.73	-$3.03	63% 280-166 (446)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pacersavg 36¢	$6.05	$7.57	+$1.51	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pacersavg 35¢	$2.46	$3.17	+$0.7	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	76ersavg 62¢	$1.63	$1.75	+$0.12	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,153.67

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$40.21

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Flaznorp

76ers

Invested

$582.14

Value

$640.38

PnL

+$58.24

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,355.23

Value

$325.76

PnL

-$7.87

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

RN1CTR

Pacers

Invested

$415.59

Value

$318.97

PnL

-$96.63

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$86.65

Value

$89.52

PnL

+$2.87

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$67.5

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$66.16

Value

$55.92

PnL

-$10.24

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$44.74

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$1.84

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$36

Value

$36.91

PnL

+$0.92

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

micky456CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$49.59

Value

$34.37

PnL

-$15.22

Record

48%

650-715 (1365)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$33.28

Value

$31.86

PnL

-$1.42

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$27.49

Value

$27.28

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

thatsabing0<$100

76ers

Invested

$10.76

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$3.03

Record

63%

280-166 (446)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$6.05

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$1.51

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$0.7

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

topdogbigboi<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.12

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 77%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.