Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (65%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (83%) · Pacers at 36¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

76ers65¢Pacers35¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$14.29

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 35.5¢

-14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers65%

Pacers36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,829

Combined PnL-$30.38

76ers2 traders

Total Value$108.72

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$16.08

Pacers — 83%76ers — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pacersavg 40.5¢	$487.37	$507.35	+$19.98	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
RN1CTR	Pacersavg 40.4¢	$305.5	$280.02	-$25.48	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 39.5¢	$171.69	$124.86	+$8.61	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pacersavg 55.1¢	$137.1	$88.4	-$48.71	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
FL Flaznorp<$100	76ersavg 46.6¢	$65.46	$85.24	+$20.7	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Pacersavg 54.4¢	$91.96	$81.1	-$10.86	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$35.88	$44.51	+$8.63
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 54.4¢	$56.08	$36.59	-$19.48
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Pacersavg 33.9¢	$58.04	$61.57	+$3.54	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38.6¢	$71.95	$28.97	+$12.03	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
SU suntori<$100	76ersavg 67¢	$28.09	$23.48	-$4.61	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Pacersavg 45.7¢	$13.48	$12.54	-$0.94	48% 643-686 (1329)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$9.52	$9.27	-$0.25	48% 650-715 (1365)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38.9¢	$9.06	$8.86	-$0.2	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pacersavg 33¢	$3.15	$4.2	+$1.05	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pacers

Invested

$487.37

Value

$507.35

PnL

+$19.98

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

RN1CTR

Pacers

Invested

$305.5

Value

$280.02

PnL

-$25.48

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$171.69

Value

$124.86

PnL

+$8.61

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

takeormakeCTR

Pacers

Invested

$137.1

Value

$88.4

PnL

-$48.71

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Flaznorp<$100

76ers

Invested

$65.46

Value

$85.24

PnL

+$20.7

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$91.96

Value

$81.1

PnL

-$10.86

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

76ers$35.8852¢+$8.63

Pacers$56.0854.4¢-$19.48

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$58.04

Value

$61.57

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$71.95

Value

$28.97

PnL

+$12.03

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

suntori<$100

76ers

Invested

$28.09

Value

$23.48

PnL

-$4.61

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$13.48

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

643-686 (1329)

micky456CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.27

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

650-715 (1365)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$9.06

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3.15

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.05

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPacers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.